The State of the Nation | 2026 Q1

What follows is not a summary of moods. It is an account of events. What happened, what it produced, and where things stand. The Civil Record does not chase outrage. It does not manufacture comfort. It documents the record as it exists.

The Quarter in Brief

The first quarter of 2026 opened with a government running on administrative adrenaline and closed with a nation at war. In between: a Supreme Court that overruled the centerpiece of the president’s trade policy, a record-long State of the Union address that told Americans the economy was roaring while the data said otherwise, and a federal bureaucracy quietly struggling under the weight of a year’s worth of structural cuts.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran. That decision — its logic, its execution, its consequences — is the defining event of this quarter and possibly this presidency.

Section 1: The War with Iran

How It Started

The immediate backstory begins in late December 2025, when mass protests erupted across Iran — the largest since the 1979 revolution. The Iranian government responded with force, killing thousands of demonstrators. On January 13, President Trump publicly encouraged Iranians to keep protesting and warned those responsible for the crackdown that they would “pay a very big price.”

Through January and into February, the United States assembled its largest military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Parallel to the buildup, the U.S. and Iran engaged in indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva. On February 20, Trump issued a 10-day deadline for a deal. A third round of talks on February 26 produced no agreement. On February 27, Oman’s foreign minister announced that Iran had agreed to key concessions — never stockpiling enriched uranium and accepting full IAEA verification. He said peace was “within reach.” Talks were scheduled to resume March 2.

On February 28, the United States and Israel began strikes.

Operation Epic Fury

The operation launched at 20:38 UTC on February 28 when Trump gave the order to proceed. Within hours, U.S. and Israeli forces carried out nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and senior leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening wave. The IRGC’s top commander, the defense minister, and dozens of other senior officials were also confirmed killed. Within days, Iranian state media reported that former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had also been killed — though subsequent reports could not confirm this.

The strikes also killed approximately 170 people when a missile struck a girls’ school adjacent to a naval base in Minab. The Iranian Red Crescent subsequently reported that over 6,600 civilian units were targeted, including residential buildings, commercial structures, 14 medical centers, and 65 schools.

Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israel, U.S. military bases in the region, and Gulf states hosting American forces. By March 5, Iran had reportedly fired over 500 ballistic missiles and nearly 2,000 drones. Dubai International Airport was damaged. The U.S. Consulate in Dubai was struck by drones. Qatar’s Hamad International Airport was targeted. Hezbollah re-entered the conflict on March 2, firing rockets into northern Israel for the first time since the November 2024 ceasefire.

The Diplomatic Dispute

One detail has attracted sustained scrutiny. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff stated publicly that Iran had opened negotiations by insisting on its “inalienable right” to enrich uranium and had rejected zero enrichment. Diplomats with direct knowledge of the talks disputed that characterization, saying Witkoff misrepresented key exchanges. The Guardian subsequently reported that UK National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell had secretly attended the Geneva talks and assessed that a diplomatic breakthrough remained possible. A Gulf diplomat quoted by the same outlet alleged that Witkoff and Jared Kushner were acting as “Israeli assets” attempting to provoke military conflict. None of these accounts have been independently adjudicated.

Where Things Stand on March 25

The war is ongoing. Iran has rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal and issued its own counterdemands. Trump has claimed the U.S. is in negotiations; Iran denies any active talks. The U.S. has deployed additional amphibious and airborne forces — an 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, the 82nd Airborne’s Immediate Response Force, and two carrier strike groups are now operating in or heading to the theater. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially disrupted. Global oil prices have surged. Gas prices in the United States have risen nearly 19% in one month, reaching a national average of $3.88 per gallon as of mid-March.

Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been named Iran’s new supreme leader.

Section 2: The Domestic Record

The State of the Union — February 24

On February 24, President Trump delivered the longest State of the Union address in at least 60 years — 108 minutes before a joint session of Congress. The central claim was economic: “The roaring economy is roaring like never before.” He cited falling core inflation, reduced border crossings, the dismantling of DEI programs in the federal government, and the release of political prisoners from Venezuela.

What the data showed at the time of the speech: The consumer price index had risen 2.4% in January from a year earlier. That was down from 2.7% in December and represented the lowest core CPI reading since April 2021. The Federal Reserve’s target is 2%. Trump stated 44,000 construction jobs had been added since January 2025. The Bureau of Labor Statistics figure for that period was 44,000 — not the 70,000 Trump cited. Manufacturing had lost 98,000 jobs in Trump’s first year back in office.

The speech was interrupted repeatedly. Democratic Rep. Al Green was escorted from the chamber after holding a sign reading “BLACK PEOPLE AREN’T APES!” — a direct reference to a video Trump had reposted to Truth Social depicting the Obamas as apes. The White House initially attributed the repost to a staffer error; Trump later said he saw it and did not consider it a mistake. Rep. Rashida Tlaib called Trump “the most corrupt president” during the speech. Trump at various points told Democrats they should be “ashamed,” called them “crazy,” and said they were “destroying the country.”

The night’s one moment of genuine bipartisan response came when Trump called for a ban on congressional stock trading. Both sides of the aisle applauded.

Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger delivered the Democratic response, asking voters three questions: Is the president making life more affordable? Is the president keeping Americans safe? Is the president working for you?

The Tariff System and the Supreme Court

Four days before the State of the Union, on February 20, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs, invalidating the reciprocal, fentanyl, and universal baseline tariff regimes the administration had imposed throughout 2025. The ruling struck down tariffs that had raised an estimated $168 billion in revenue since January 2025.

The administration responded by reimposing a 10% tariff under Section 122 authority and maintaining existing Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos. The fiscal and economic picture remains unsettled. Businesses that paid IEEPA tariffs may be entitled to refunds; that litigation is ongoing. The Yale Budget Lab estimates the Section 232 and Section 122 tariffs will raise $662 billion over the next decade, compared to the $3.1 trillion the full IEEPA regime would have raised.

The consumer impact is arriving. Goldman Sachs warned in March that if higher oil prices from the Iran war persist, inflation could reach 3% by year-end — up from 2.4% in January. Trump’s net approval on economic handling fell to -39 on prices and inflation in a March Verasight poll. Just 29% of Americans approved of his handling of the economy in a Reuters/Ipsos survey completed March 24 — the lowest economic approval rating of either of his two terms, and lower than any recorded for his predecessor Joe Biden.

DOGE: One Year On

Elon Musk departed his formal role at the Department of Government Efficiency in spring 2025. The initiative he built continued operating after his departure. At the one-year mark, its impact on the federal government is measurable and contested.

Among documented outcomes: USAID was effectively dismantled, eliminating an agency that had distributed up to $50 billion annually in foreign aid. The Department of Education lost 49% of its staff. Federal courts issued numerous injunctions blocking DOGE activity, though the Supreme Court stayed several of those rulings. A coalition of 19 states filed suit to block DOGE’s access to Treasury payment systems; that access was partially blocked by a federal judge in February 2025 and remains in litigation.

The operational question that emerged in Q1 2026: whether the personnel and capacity cuts made to agencies like CISA, FEMA, and Voice of America created gaps in the government’s ability to respond to the Iran war. CNN reported in March that CISA’s reduced staffing had resulted in sharply diminished engagement with private critical infrastructure firms on Iranian cyber threats — engagement that routinely occurred under previous administrations when tensions escalated. A senior FEMA official told CNN the agency was operating at roughly 50% of its normal readiness capacity due to “staffing gaps, contract lapses, and funding uncertainty.” DHS disputed the framing.

On the savings side: the administration claimed $214 billion in reductions. Independent analysts placed the figure significantly lower. Congress rejected most proposed discretionary cuts in the 2026 budget process. Of 30 programs the White House proposed eliminating or slashing, only one was eliminated.

Section 3: The Approval Numbers

These are not projections. These are measurements.

As of the week of March 20–25, 2026:

Overall approval: Reuters/Ipsos (completed March 24) — 36% approve, 62% disapprove. AP-NORC — 38% approve. Quinnipiac (March 6–8) — 37% approve, 57% disapprove. Morning Consult (registered voters, March 20–22) — 43% approve, 54% disapprove.

Net approval: Silver Bulletin average as of March 25 — -15.3, a new second-term low and approximately 3 points worse than where Trump stood at the equivalent point in his first term.

Issue-specific approval (Verasight/Strength in Numbers, March 16–18): Prices and inflation: net -39. Jobs and economy: net -23. Foreign policy: net -23. Trade: net -24. Border security: net negative for the first time in Trump’s second term — a category where he held a net +4 rating as recently as January.

With men: CNN analyst Harry Enten noted that Trump won men by 13 points in 2024. As of late March, he is -7 net with men overall and -19 net with men under 45.

With Republicans: 82% approval among Republicans (Newsweek/polling average, March 20–23), down from 88% in early March. The trend is soft but intact.

Trump acknowledged his standing at a White House event in late February, saying: “It just amazes me that there’s not more support out there. We actually have silent support. I think it’s silent. I think that’s how I won.”

Section 4: The Structural Picture

Three structural conditions define the political terrain for the rest of 2026.

The midterms are in November. Control of the House and Senate is at stake. The out-party historically gains ground on the generic ballot between February and November in midterm cycles — an average of 5 points. Democrats currently lead by 6 on the generic ballot. If the historical pattern holds, that number moves into wave territory.

The economy is under simultaneous pressure from two directions. Tariff-related price increases, which businesses deferred through 2025, are now reaching consumers. The Iran war has layered an energy shock on top of that. These are not the same shock. One is structural and ongoing; the other could recede if the conflict ends. The Federal Reserve is navigating both simultaneously.

The legal architecture of executive power is being adjudicated in real time. The Supreme Court’s IEEPA tariff ruling was not a minor procedural correction. It was a 6-3 ruling, on a conservative court, that the president had exceeded his statutory authority. Cases involving DOGE, federal workforce reductions, and foreign aid remain active. The courts are the operational check on the executive branch in a way they have not been in recent memory.

What Is Not Resolved

The war in Iran has no visible end date. Peace talks are claimed by one side and denied by the other. Iran has a new supreme leader with no established track record in foreign negotiation. The Strait of Hormuz is partially disrupted. American troops are still deploying.

The tariff system is in legal and economic transition. Businesses are making pricing decisions without knowing whether IEEPA refunds will materialize, what replacement tariffs will look like, or how trading partners will respond.

The federal government’s operational capacity — after a year of structural reduction — has not been fully tested by a major domestic emergency. The Iran war is the first sustained external crisis of Trump’s second term. Its stress test of the reduced bureaucracy is ongoing.

The 2026 midterm elections are 230 days away.

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The Civil Record · Q1 2026 · Published March 25, 2026 · All figures sourced from public polling data, U.S. government records, and verified reporting. Polling margins of error apply to individual surveys. Contested claims are noted as contested. Ongoing litigation and unresolved events are noted as such.